RETAIL GLOSSARY

Demand Forecast

An estimate of future customer demand for a specific product or category, based on factors such as historical sales, market trends, and promotional activities.

What is Demand Forecast?

Demand forecasting helps retailers estimate future customer demand by analysing historical data, market trends, and customer behaviour. It helps optimise inventory management, improve production and supply chain efficiency, and enhance customer satisfaction. However, challenges such as seasonality and market fluctuations can impact forecast accuracy. Regular evaluation and updating of forecasting models are necessary to adapt to changing market conditions.

How Demand Forecast works

Historical data analysis: Demand forecasting involves analysing past sales data and customer behaviour to identify patterns and trends.

Market research: Retailers gather information about market conditions, competitor analysis, and industry trends to understand external factors that can influence demand.

Statistical models: Various statistical techniques, such as time series analysis, regression analysis, and machine learning algorithms, are applied to forecast future demand based on historical and market data.

Demand drivers: Factors like seasonality, promotional activities, economic conditions, and customer preferences are considered to identify the key drivers of demand and incorporate them into the forecasting models.

Forecast accuracy: Demand forecasting is an iterative process that requires continuous evaluation and refinement of the forecasting models to improve accuracy. Retailers may use metrics like mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to measure the accuracy of their forecasts.

Demand planning: Forecasted demand is used to plan inventory levels, production schedules, procurement, and resource allocation to ensure sufficient supply to meet customer demand while minimising stockouts and excess inventory.

Collaboration and data sharing: Effective demand forecasting often involves collaboration between different departments and stakeholders, including sales, marketing, operations, and suppliers. Sharing relevant data and insights helps improve the accuracy of forecasts.

Demand forecasting tools: Retailers can leverage specialised software and tools that automate data analysis, forecasting algorithms, and visualisation to streamline the demand forecasting process and generate actionable insights.

Remember, demand forecasting is not a foolproof method and is subject to uncertainties and external factors that can impact accuracy. Regular monitoring, adjustment, and flexibility are essential for effective demand forecasting.

Pros of Demand Forecast

Improved inventory management: Demand forecasting helps retailers optimise their inventory levels by accurately predicting customer demand. By knowing what and how much to stock, retailers can avoid stockouts and minimise excess inventory, leading to cost savings and improved customer satisfaction.
Enhanced production and procurement planning: Demand forecasting enables retailers to plan their production and procurement activities more efficiently. By forecasting demand, retailers can align their production schedules, raw material procurement, and supplier relationships to meet customer demand while minimising lead times and production bottlenecks.
Effective sales and marketing strategies: Demand forecasting provides insights into customer preferences, buying patterns, and market trends. This information helps retailers develop targeted sales and marketing strategies, including pricing, promotions, and product assortment. By understanding customer demand in advance, retailers can tailor their strategies to maximise sales and profitability.

Cons of Demand Forecast

Inaccuracy and uncertainty: Demand forecasting involves predicting future customer demand, which is inherently challenging and subject to various uncertainties. Factors such as changing consumer behaviour, market dynamics, and external events can impact the accuracy of forecasts. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to overstocking or understocking, resulting in financial losses, missed sales opportunities, and customer dissatisfaction.
Data limitations and complexity: Accurate demand forecasting requires comprehensive and quality data inputs, including historical sales data, market research, and external data sources. Retailers may face challenges in obtaining and analysing relevant data, especially if they operate in complex or rapidly changing markets. Additionally, the complexity of demand forecasting models and techniques can make it difficult for some retailers to implement and interpret the results.
Cost and resource requirements: Developing and maintaining a robust demand forecasting system can involve significant investments in technology, data analytics capabilities, and skilled personnel. Small or resource-constrained retailers may find it challenging to allocate the necessary resources for effective demand forecasting. Additionally, the ongoing monitoring and adjustment of forecasts require continuous effort and resources.

FAQ

Below you will find answers to common questions

How can demand forecasting help to optimise inventory management?

Demand forecasting plays a crucial role in optimising inventory management. By accurately predicting future customer demand, retailers can determine the right amount of inventory to carry at any given time. This helps in avoiding overstocking, which ties up valuable capital and incurs holding costs, as well as minimising understocking, which leads to lost sales and dissatisfied customers. By leveraging demand forecasting insights, retailers can maintain optimal inventory levels, reduce stockouts, improve cash flow, and enhance customer satisfaction.

How can demand forecasting support our promotional planning and pricing strategies?

Demand forecasting provides valuable insights for promotional planning and pricing strategies. By analysing historical sales data and market trends, retailers can identify patterns and seasonal fluctuations in customer demand. This information enables them to plan effective promotions and optimise pricing strategies to drive sales and maximise profitability. For example, demand forecasting can help retailers identify peak demand periods to run targeted promotions, determine optimal pricing levels based on demand elasticity, and forecast the impact of pricing changes on sales volumes and revenue.